Two of Leicestershire’s newest MPs would be in line to lose their seats if a new election was held today, a major poll revealed. July’s General Election saw a number of major changes across the city, county and country as a whole.
Two previously Conservative Leicestershire seats went to Labour, and the first MP for a whole new seat was decided. Meanwhile, the city saw shocking scenes when the Tories bucked 32 years of local precedent, and the national trend, when Shivani Raja took former Labour MP turned Independent Claudia Webbe’s Leicester East seat. Another surprise twist of the night was prominent Labour MP Jon Ashworth losing the Leicester South constituency he had held since 2010 to Independent Shockat Adam, who ran on a pro-Gaza platform.
That tumultuous night saw the Conservatives come away with its worst election results in its history and Keir Starmer’s Labour Government storm to power with a massive majority. But in the months since, a major new poll conducted by More In Common suggests the British public has shifted “dramatically” once more in its voting intentions.
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If an election was held today, the poll anticipates Labour would still come out on top, but with heavy losses when it comes to parliamentary seats. They would be expected to drop nearly 200 seats, and come out just six seats ahead of the Conservatives at 228 MPs to 222, leaving the country with a hung parliament. This means no one party would have enough seats to be in overall control.
Reform would be expected to make gains, coming out with 72 seats compared to its current five. This would see the Liberal Democrats knocked into fourth position, taking 32 seats compared to the 72 it won in July. More In Common said the poll reflects current voting intentions and cannot be used to predict the ultimate results of the next election given it is four and a half years away.
Leicestershire would see some changes too. July’s two Labour gains in the county would be expected to return to the Conservatives, the poll suggests.
This includes Amanda Hack’s North West Leicestershire seat, won by Andrew Bridgen in 2019 before he was permanently expelled from the Conservative Party after comparing the use of Covid jabs to the Holocaust. The Tories would take 31 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 24 per cent.
Margins would be a lot closer in Jeevun Sandher’s Loughborough seat, with the Tories expected to squeak ahead but both parties sitting around 30 per cent of the vote. The seat was previously held by Conservative Jane Hunt.
Jeevun Sandher and Amanda Hack would lose their seats if the election was held today
The other three new MPs in the city and county, Conservatives Peter Bedford in Mid Leicestershire and Shivani Raja in Leicester East, and Independent Shockat Adam in Leicester South, would all be expected to be voted back in under current intentions. Older hats, including Labour’s Liz Kendall in Leicester West, and the Conservatives’ Neil O’Brien in Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, Alberto Costa in South Leicestershire, Ed Argar in Melton and Syston and Luke Evans in Hinckley and Bosworth, would all be expected to return if they ran again.
Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “[The poll] confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office. The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote.
“There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election. While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.
“However, our model also shows the challenge the Conservatives face. Despite the models estimate of seat gains, they would be heading for their second worst share of the vote in history, and without making significant gains against Reform on the right, and the Liberal Democrats on the left, would struggle to come even close to being able to form a majority Government.
“Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14 fold.”