It is very hard to spot the Conservative Party in Nottinghamshire these days. Wiped off Nottingham City Council for the first time in history, reduced to just one Nottinghamshire MP and losing their police and crime commissioner – the recent years have been rough for the county’s Tories.
2025 will therefore be a crucial year as the party tries to hold its last Nottinghamshire bastion – the county council. Yet the election will be fought hard by a Labour group now “very confident” of winning outright and an independent group whose leader is prepared to bet his house that nobody will win a complete majority.
Nottinghamshire County Council, the upper authority for all areas outside the city, has historically flipped between Labour and the Conservatives. Yet the 2017 election saw the authority being left without a single party big enough to govern on its own.
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The Conservatives, under the leadership of Kay Cutts, therefore had to form an arrangement with the Mansfield Independents. The most recent county council election, held in 2021, saw the Conservatives strengthen their position and the county was then governed by the party under the leadership of Ben Bradley.
Yet the years since that last election have seen significant political changes nationally and locally. The Conservatives are now out of power, Labour are in government, and the independent group at the county council has grown to the extent that it has exactly the same number of elected members as Labour.
Ben Bradley marks the biggest change locally going into the county council elections, having resigned as council leader in early December. Now serving as the cabinet member for education and SEND, Councillor Bradley will not be standing in May’s elections and has been replaced as leader by Sam Smith.
It might seem a risk for the Conservatives not only to be going into the elections without the well-known Bradley, but to have replaced him with a 27-year-old. Sam Smith says his age does not play on his mind, having been selected over the more experienced heads of Richard Jackson and Neil Clarke.
Asked if he thinks he can hold onto to the county council for the Conservatives, Councillor Smith says: “Absolutely, look what Labour have done in government. The farming industry is going to go bang very shortly because of their drastically ridiculous inheritance tax laws that are coming in. You’ve got pensioners who are choosing between heating and eating, which is a disgraceful choice to make, and you’ve got glass going all over farmland rather than keeping it as grass.”
Councillor Sam Smith, Nottinghamshire County Council’s new leader
(Image: Joseph Raynor/Reach PLC)
Despite concern over decisions including the winter fuel allowance changes, Councillor Kate Foale, the leader of the county council’s Labour group, believes the party has not lost the momentum it had in the July general election.
Councillor Foale said: “I think with a good, strong, socially responsible Labour government in place, we can make real strides now to put the country and Nottinghamshire County Council back on its feet. I think we can win outright in May. I’m very confident of that. We’ve had a really good look at some of the data and it’s strong still for Labour. There’s nothing more exciting for us than actually working with a positive, socially responsible Labour government with real integrity.”
Jason Zadrozny, leader of the Nottinghamshire County Independent Group, believes both the big parties are wrong to assume that they will get the 34 councillors or more needed to form a majority. Councillor Zadrozny instead believes that an arrangement between multiple parties is likely and that his group will form part of that.
The independent leader said: “In my 20 odd years on the council, I think this is the first time that we’ll be in a position of power. That might not be entirely on our own.
“Genuinely I don’t have a strength of feeling about who we work with. It might be a complete supply and confidence scenario where we can literally do vote by vote what’s best for Nottinghamshire.
“But if we’re the bigger group, I would expect the other parties to be doing that for us. We’re quite ambitious about being the largest group. I’m almost starting to feel like, research like and work like we are an administration in waiting. We’ve been the opposition for a long time.
“We’re not stupid. We’ve worked really hard at understanding the budget, the services, the finances, the departments and what we feel will benefit residents. I need to work with colleagues, even if I pinch my nose to do that.”
Councillor Kate Foale, the leader of the Labour group at Nottinghamshire County Council
(Image: Oliver Pridmore/Reach PLC)
Councillor Zadrozny is perhaps in the most unusual position of all the party leaders, given that he is due to stand trial at Northampton Crown Court in February 2025. Also serving as Ashfield District Council’s leader, Councillor Zadrozny has pleaded not guilty to 12 counts of fraud by false representation and four counts of income tax evasion and is on unconditional bail.
Asked about whether the trial could affect his campaigning, Councillor Zadrozny said: “The court case will be what it is and actually after two weeks of being in court and then being completely exonerated, I think it will be an absolutely massive bolster for us when people realise that we’ve been proved to be innocent
“Look what it’s doing for Trump. None of that legal stuff has bothered him and I’ll have the opposite, because I’m going to be found absolutely innocent.”
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK may have an impact on this county council election, with the party having pledged to stand candidates at all councils where elections are taking place in May 2025. Although saying that he will be happy to talk to people on an individual level, Councillor Zadrozny says he would not work with Reform UK to govern the county council.
He said: “I’ve got people in my group who are a very, very broad church. They’ve gone from the very left of politics to the very right of politics.
“But fundamentally, I would personally struggle. We’re not talking about stopping the boats coming up Trent Bridge, we’re talking about making sure Greenwood Primary School has got the best education it possibly has. We’re talking about making sure meals on wheels are delivered on time. For me, they’re just another big national party with a national agenda.”
Jason Zadrozny will be at Northampton Crown Court in February 2025
(Image: Reach PLC/Oliver Pridmore)
Councillor Foale does not believe Reform will have much of an impact on Labour, saying: “I think they’re likely to be very interesting. There’s been a debate about the impact that might have on us, but I’m not worried about it.”
Yet speaking before resigning as council leader, Ben Bradley said Reform could contribute to an election which he believes will hang in the balance for all parties. The former council leader said: “Reform, I have no doubt, will have an impact. It’s hard to know on who.
“If Reform win seats in Ashfield, great, because they’re not taking any from me. It depends who they take seats from and where they stand.
“It is always difficult actually to win the majority here when you’ve got third parties that potentially take 12 or 15 seats, so it will be fairly tight and in the balance.” Only Labour seem to be of the view that the race will be less tight, with the party being the most confident of governing the county council on their own from May.
That would be quite the turnaround from the 2021 election, when Labour’s leader lost his seat to a young Conservative candidate in a shock result. Ultimately, it is the thousands of voters heading to the ballot boxes across Nottinghamshire in May who will decide what their county council looks like. If the political landscape has shifted beyond recognition since the last election, then there is still plenty of time between now and May for things to change again.