Reform UK has pushed Labour into third in most of the rural Lincolnshire seats, a poll has found. The populist party would come in second in all seats currently held by the Conservatives – an improvement on its performance in the 2024 General Election in July.
The poll by More in Common predicts that Labour would lose 200 seats if a General Election was held today, while Reform would jump from five to 72 seats. No seats would change hands in Lincolnshire with all remaining Conservative except for Lincoln (Labour) and Boston & Skegness (Reform UK.)
However, there has been significant movement. Reform is now polling between 21 and 30 per cent in the Conservative-held seats, putting it firmly in second.
In Boston & Skegness – currently held by the party’s chairman Richard Tice – Reform have solidified their hold from 38 per cent to 47 per cent. The surge has pushed Labour back into low double digits, with its vote share estimated at between seven and 14 per cent across different seats – sometimes tied with Liberal Democrats or the Green Party.
Lincoln would become a three-way race with Labour currently on 30 per cent, Conservatives on 26 and Reform on 24. The poll, released on December 28, asked over 11,000 adults how they intend to vote.
Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election.
“While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.
“However, our model also shows the challenge the Conservatives face. Despite the models estimate of seat gains, they would be heading for their second worst share of the vote in history, and without making significant gains against Reform on the right, and the Liberal Democrats on the left, would struggle to come even close to being able to form a majority Government.
“Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14 fold. Strikingly, the party appears to have established two particularly strong regional bases of support – one in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and the other in Tyne and Wear.”