The boss of Northumbria Healthcare has warned that the trust will need to provide hundreds more beds by 2040 due to an ageing population – unless the way people access healthcare changes.
Executive medical director Dr Alistair Blair admitted the figure was ‘scary’ and explained that if nothing changed, the trust would need an additional 242 beds in the next 15 years – the equivalent of a hospital the size of the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital (NSECH) at Cramlington. Dr Blair added that these figures did not take into account population growth as a result of the Government’s new housing targets.
The director explained that the way care was provided would have to change in order to keep the system sustainable. Speaking at Thursday’s meeting of the Northumberland Health and Wellbeing Board, officials from various bodies expressed a belief that the county was moving in the right direction.
Dr Blair said: “This is a rallying call about how we, collectively, need to think differently about how we’re going to look after the health of our population. This is looking at the ONS figures of the current population – it is an ageing population.
“If we imagine somebody who is 85 comes into hospital, they sped more time in hospital with the same problem as somebody who is 65. They have got more needs, they are more complex and they take longer.
“These figures are looking at the bed occupancy based on what we’re currently doing. If we do exactly the same as we’re doing today with the future ageing population, this is what happens. The need for hospital beds goes up and will increase further with the new homes.
“It is quite scary. We need 242 new beds by 2040 which is equivalent to NSECH. There is no funding for a new hospital.
“We’re going to have to look very carefully at how we cope with the changing demographic. 2040 sounds like a long way away – it isn’t. It is our collective problem.”
According to census data, the number of people aged 65 and older was 8,750 in 2021 – an increase of 3,295 on 2011. The proportion of people in this age group is expected to increase by a third by 2039.
Furthermore, the county saw a 35% increase in the population aged 75 and over in that same period. The health and wellbeing board, which brings together representatives from various bodies including healthcare trusts, Northumberland County Council and Northumbria Police, has been focusing on preventative measures to ensure residents spend more of their lives in good health.
Abi Conway of Citizens Advice Northumberland said: “It is really going to be incumbent to do something different. This almost forces change. We should be reflecting and thinking how we can’t continue to use healthcare as we have always done, because it just isn’t going to work.”
Northumberland County Council’s director of public health, Gill O’Neill, outlined some of the measures being taken.
She said: “For me, what this highlights is if we don’t change, this will be the outcome. But, there is everything that we have got in place through the county partnership and the work we’re doing with the Institute of Health Equality and suchlike.
“We know that the structural changes around housing and employment beyond individual behaviour change. 20% of health outcomes are attributed to good homes; 35% are attributed to material deprivation and poverty.
“We can affect this. It is a call to action and a reality check. We are doing the right things, but they will take time to implement. We will always need good quality healthcare, but hopefully that independent in the home is where we can all work together.”
Dr Blair added: “The key is people will still need to use healthcare, but not in the way that they are currently doing. We can look at virtual wards and lots of other ways.
“This shouldn’t be about denying access, but it should be about providing different ways of caring that are equally effective, but not all in a hospital bed.”
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