Scotland is sleepwalking into the nightmare of Nigel Farage becoming the Holyrood kingmaker next year. Two outcomes are imaginable after voters go to the polls in May 2026.
The first is the return of a narrow majority of pro-independence MSPs, in which case the Greens would almost certainly back John Swinney to stay on as First Minister. The second permutation – backed by today’s Holyrood Sources/True North poll – is the first pro-UK majority of MSPs since 2007. Then the craziness begins.
Let’s take the latest polling numbers at face value: 66 pro-Union MSPs versus 63 on the independence side. To win the vote to become First Minister, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar would almost certainly need the support of every Unionist party.
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The Scottish Lib Dems, whose leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has good relations with Sarwar, would back Labour. The Scottish Tories, through gritted teeth, are desperate to get rid of the SNP and would likely follow suit.
But critical to Sarwar entering Bute House would be persuading 15 Reform MSPs – elected on a platform of hostility to net zero and immigration – to support him.
It would be quaint to imagine Reform’s Holyrood group making their decision as an autonomous entity without outside interference. The reality is Reform is a highly centralised political party under the control of Farage and his oddball allies.
It is ludicrous to believe Farage would not have a major say on his Scottish branch’s decision, particularly given it may impact his own electoral ambitions.
Reform has surged in the polls across the UK by heaping contempt on their two mainstream rivals, Labour and the Tories. Backing Labour could damage the Farage brand and it is certain he would want his say on the matter.
In the event of a tight pro-UK majority, Farage could inform his colleagues to vote for Sarwar or sit it out. Either way, he would determine the identity of the next First Minister.
Sarwar becoming FM on the back of Reform votes would be reputationally damaging and short-sighted. Farage’s party would take umbrage at the slightest disagreement and would not take much encouragement to support a vote of no confidence.
The mainstream pro-UK parties have partly brought about this doomsday scenario themselves. Scottish Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories have tried to ignore Farage and co in the hope they fizzle out. But Reform have grown in strength and it is time to get real.
Fifteen Reform MSPs could wreck devolution and turn Holyrood into a 24/7 circus. Farage would go from being the whipping boy of Scottish politics to having the whip hand.
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