Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July if an election was held today – including that of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who would be beaten by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, according to a new poll.
Other major Greater Manchester MPs who would lose their seats in the new poll are Jim McMahon in Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton, and Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge and Hyde. Jonathan Reynolds is the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, and President of the Board of Trade, while Jim McMahon is the Minister of State (Housing, Communities and Local Government).
There are six other seats out of 27 parliamentary constituencies in Greater Manchester that would also be lost by Labour and cross over to Reform, the poll by think tank More in Common has found. Labour seats that would swing to Reform if an election was held now include:
- Jo Platt in Leigh and Atherton
- Yasmin Qureshi in Bolton South and Walkden
- Kirith Entwistle in Bolton North
- Elsie Blundell in Heywood and Middleton North
- Debbie Abrahams in Oldham East and Saddleworth
- Josh Simons in Makerfield
Bolton West, currently held by Phil Brickell, would change from Labour to Conservative.
This first major seat-by-seat analysis post-general election is a fresh political setback for Sir Keir Starmer, whose leadership of the country has been marked by turbulence.
The MRP polling from More in Common found that Labour, which secured a landslide victory in the general election, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP. The survey data, collected from over 11,000 people for The Sunday Times, indicated a near wipe-out for Sir Keir in regions where his party made significant gains, including the West Country.
Here, many newly elected MPs have faced backlash over changes to inheritance tax rules for farmers. The party has also come under fire over gifts for the prime minister and senior cabinet ministers.
Jim McMahon MP
(Image: Ian Vogler / Daily Mirror)
Earlier this month, ministers received heavy criticism for their decision not to provide compensation to Waspi women. And the poll found that with many of Labour’s gains reversed, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would emerge as the third-largest parliamentary party.
This comes just weeks after a Techne UK tracker poll found Reform made a dramatic three-point jump in the polls in a week. This week, a dispute erupted over Reform’s claim that it now has more members than the Conservative Party, reported the Independent today (Sunday).
The latest More In Common polling indicates a potential political shake-up, with projections of a hung parliament if an election were to take place today. Labour is poised to secure just over a third of the seats, while the poll analysis suggests that seven cabinet ministers could be ousted, including six by Reform candidates.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting is predicted to lose Ilford North to an independent. While other high-profile losses to Reform would include Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, would also face a tight race in Wigan, and is only estimated to win by less than five percentage points against Reform.
The projected seat totals for the main parties are as follows: Labour with 228 seats, Conservatives with 222, Reform UK with 72, Liberal Democrats with 58, Scottish National Party with 37, Independents with 8, Plaid Cymru holding steady at 4, and the Green Party dropping to 2 seats.
Jonathan Reynolds MP
(Image: Darren Quinton/Birmingham Live)
A majority in the House of Commons requires at least 326 seats out of 650. Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, said: “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.
“Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election.
“While the new government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other Budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the government to deliver.”
More In Common’s polling also indicated a significant increase in electoral fragmentation since the general election in July. According to their projections, the next general election could mark the end of Britain’s two-party system, with 271 seats potentially being won with less than a third of the vote.