Weather experts are weighing in on the likelihood of snow for Ireland this weekend after our neighbours to the east issued a major warning for a foot of snowfall.
The UK Met Office issued a blanket snow warning across the mainland UK for Saturday and Sunday as a deepening area of low pressure pushes east north eastwards from the southwest.
Weather Alerts Ireland explained: “The warning includes the risk of widespread snowfall of over 5cm with up to 30cm of snow over hills and mountains, though that’s not exclusively over higher ground with disruption likely.
“What can we derive from this warning? The fact that the Met Office haven’t issued a warning for the north of Ireland indicates that they favour a more southerly track than the GFS and ECMWF.
“Keeping the low to the south means the low doesn’t deepen to be quite as intense, however, it means there’s a higher risk of snowfall across the southern half of Ireland with cold air remaining.
“Tuesday morning the ECMWF and GFS have converged on the idea that the storm will produce snow across much of Ireland, though low lying areas near the coasts could see mostly rain, with snow likely inland and over hills.
“In summary, we know we’re entering into a cold spell, but much depends on the development of an Azores low between now and Saturday which will have a major impact on if and where we see snow.”
Nick Finnis, a forecaster for Netweather, stated:
“Outbreaks of rain look to spread in from the South West later on Saturday preceded by a spell of snow into Sunday. Quickly turning back to rain, but may stay as snow and linger through into early next week. So potential for some large accumulations of snow over higher ground. However, there is uncertainty how far north the low will get, if the low is shallower it and the snow may end up further south.”
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Weather Alerts Ireland also stated that from Wednesday until Saturday, Ireland will experience a cold north to northwesterly airflow as a blocking high to the southeast of Greenland develops before being squeezed to a ridge of high pressure.
“Under such a scenario Ireland is cold, with below average temperatures by day and night, with severe night frosts and a risk of icy roads. Generally dry, but wintry showers will feed into northern coastal areas initially, some turning to snow,” they explained.
“However, our attention is very much focused on the development of an area of low pressure across the Azores that looks increasingly likely to bring an increased risk of heavy and disruptive snow across some areas of the country this weekend.
“The uncertainty in this scenario is down to its depth, with a deeper low taking the system further north and causing widespread heavy falls of snow, or whether it’s weaker and stays more to the south, possibly bringing snow to southern areas alone.
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“Wherever does experience snow it’s likely to be disruptive due to the intensity and the combination with gale force northeasterly winds which under some scenarios would be akin to blizzard like conditions last associated with Storm Emma in 2018.
“Either way Ireland retains the colder conditions into next week with varying degrees of severity and duration, but the overall trend for the first half of next week is for further bitterly cold temperatures with a slight risk of some snow showers near coasts chiefly.”
Met Eireann has stated: “There is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast for the weekend. Current indications suggest that it will stay cold with an area of low pressure steering rain across the country later Saturday.”
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“This rain may turn to sleet or snow in places, with further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow possible through Saturday night and Sunday, alongside strong winds. However, it is possible that this system will remain to the south of us, allowing a continuation of the drier, clearer conditions.”
Met Eireann has issued the following short-term forecast.
A cold, largely dry and sunny day is expected on Thursday with a few light showers in the west and north, some turning to hail or sleet. Daytime temperatures of 2 to 5 degrees in a light north to northwest breeze.
Thursday will be a cold, dry and clear night, though scattered showers will move into Ulster towards morning, possibly turning to sleet on higher ground. Widespread frost and some ice developing with lowest temperatures of -3 to +1 degrees in light to moderate northwesterly winds.
Frost and ice will gradually clear on Friday morning, leaving a dry and sunny day with just a few showers in the north and west. Highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees in a light westerly breeze.
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